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Prediction for CME (2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-17T20:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23802/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T10:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
CME Event ID: A9116
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-02-17 23:06:00Z 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1158 km/s
Longitude (deg): -52 deg
Latitude (deg): 11 deg
Half-angular width (deg): 40 deg
 
Notes from Forecast Discussion issued: 2023 Feb 19 0030 UTC, prepared by Space Weather Prediction Center:
The associated CME from the X2.2 flare on 17 Feb was analyzed and
modeled. Arrival of the CME is expected around midday on 20 Feb. Arrival
times from modeling varied from late on 19 Feb to early on 21 Feb.

Lead Time: 38.05 hour(s)
Difference: -0.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-02-18T19:49Z

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